Indian domains growth predictions

Kokoro

Member
I drew a graph showing .in growth from 2005 till now. Most important, you can see the growth speeds up significantly from August 2011 when the first million was announced.

I also added to the graph my future growth predictions (thin red lines) based on the last announcements:
1. pessimistic - the growth will be passive and the recent acceleration was just a fluctuation. In this prediction we see it reaches 2 millions around May 2013. It is not likely to happen.
2. optimistic - I extended the curve based on the last 2 announcement. Te result is quite shocking and you can see rapid growth beyond any formulated till now expectations. In that variant 5 millions is reached by the end of 2014 (in approx. 21 months from now).
3. mixed - I also used the last 2 announcements but this time I did linear extension instead incremental. Assuming it will be closest to the real growth, we will hit 3 millions .in domains around January 2014. This variant is more realistic although still doesn't include the recent acceleration.

Here is the graph:



Just use your imagination to draw further conclusions :)

All the values used on the graph are either official announcements (NIXI, IN Registry) or revealed by the .in registrar Mitsu.

1-2005 - 0.007 mil (.co.in)
11-2006 - 0.2 mil
6-2009 - 0.51 mil
3-2010 - 0.61 mil
7-2010 - 0.74 mil
8-2011 - 1.0 mil
10-2011 - 1.1 mil
3-2012 - 1.5 mil

Edit: I forgot that .co.in is older than .in, so that it shouldn't be 0 in 2005. I don't know how many co.in's were registered at the time when .in started. It doesn't affect my predictions, anyway.

Edit2: 1-2005 updated thanks to Mitsu
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Thanks for the post, some predictions seems on higher side, please do take into consideration that .IN is running with promo since last few years.

Two things we want to mention :

Please correct word "semi-official (Mitsu)" if you simply write ".In registrar Mitsu" will be much better. As such word will not easily digestible to some registrars.

Before 16th Feb.,2005 (.IN release date) approx. 7000 domain names were registered in third level of .IN domains by Ernet India (Between 1992 to Dec. 2004).


I drew a graph showing .in growth from 2005 till now. Most important, you can see the growth speeds up significantly from August 2011 when the first million was announced.

I also added to the graph my future growth predictions (thin red lines) based on the last announcements:
1. pessimistic - the growth will be passive and the recent acceleration was just a fluctuation. In this prediction we see it reaches 2 millions around May 2013. It is not likely to happen.
2. optimistic - I extended the curve based on the last 2 announcement. Te result is quite shocking and you can see rapid growth beyond any formulated till now expectations. In that variant 5 millions is reached by the end of 2014 (in approx. 21 months from now).
3. mixed - I also used the last 2 announcements but this time I did linear extension instead incremental. Assuming it will be closest to the real growth, we will hit 3 millions .in domains around January 2014. This variant is more realistic although still doesn't include the recent acceleration.

Here is the graph:



Just use your imagination to draw further conclusions :)

All the values used are either official (NIXI, IN Registry) or semi-official (Mitsu) .in count announcements:
1-2005 - 0 mil
11-2006 - 0.2 mil
6-2009 - 0.51 mil
3-2010 - 0.61 mil
7-2010 - 0.74 mil
8-2011 - 1.0 mil
10-2011 - 1.1 mil
3-2012 - 1.5 mil

Edit: I forgot that .co.in is older than .in, so that it shouldn't be 0 in 2005. I don't know how many co.in's were registered at the time when .in started. It doesn't affect my predictions, anyway.
 

Kokoro

Member
Thanks for the post, some predictions seems on higher side, please do take into consideration that .IN is running with promo since last few years.

Two things we want to mention :

Please correct word "semi-official (Mitsu)" if you simply write ".In registrar Mitsu" will be much better. As such word will not easily digestible to some registrars.

Before 16th Feb.,2005 (.IN release date) approx. 7000 domain names were registered in third level of .IN domains by Ernet India (Between 1992 to Dec. 2004).
Ok, I changed my OP. Thanks for updates.

The promo is running a few years now and the growth was rather stable until .in reached the first 1 million last year. It seems that not the promo is the main factor here but rather the information about 1 mil + Indian Internet infrastructure development. Whatever factors behind this, it is 50% increase in 7 months!
 
Last edited by a moderator:

LLL.in King

Well-Known Member
Country flag
Excellent work Kokoro. Thanks for the great input.There is no doubt .IN is a booming TLD that won't stop for a while.As you said, the infrastructure is in place to handle all these domains. India also has a very low DPP(Domain per person)average so .IN registrations are going to keep going and it can be registered globally which i think is great because it opens up all its potential.But you know i am addicted to lll.ins,so i won't go there now.
 
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