How long before .In extension matures????

Truekumar

Active Member
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Ok guys,

Please submit your guesses in years. How long do you guys think it will take before the .In domain extension matures to similar levels in regards to value as .com and other high value domain extensions? Or is this even possible?

3 Years? 5 Years? 10 Years? 15 Years?

How long will it take?
 

GetItNow

Banned
As I heard many people predicted it will be at least within the next 5 years. Of course, if the India country keep growing in economic and hi-technology.
 

Truekumar

Active Member
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Wow! That is quite a quick period in which to mature do you not think?

I was thinking more on towards 10 years myself, just due to the fact that .In extension is currently at the stage that .Com was in 1997 maybe? Therefore if the .In extension did mature to the same level as .Com is currently, within JUST 5 years then that would be great BUT do you really think that it can progress that quickly??

5 years is a very short period of time but I guess that it may potentially occur, but I think only if the internet use in India somehow miraculously increases substantially in India within the next 5 years? Otherwise do you not think that we may have to wait maybe even 10-15 years to see the extension mature in value??
 

Kokoro

Member
.com is out of range for any extension in the predictable future but this is primary global TLD with ~100M domains registered.

There are some important milestones which are expected to happen soon and which you should be awaiting for (as they should affect the .in market):

* 1 million of .in registered - this is something we can hear anytime soon; tomorrow, next week or next month.
* full LLL.in buyout - my guess is it may happen after the first million is announced or will take a bit more time, up to 1 year
* .in reaches .es level (currently ~1.25 mil registered) by the end of this year.
* .in reaches .ch level (currently 1.5 mil registered) by the end of next year
* .in reaches 2 mil. - 2013/2014
*. in reaches .pl and .fr level (2 mil. of .pl in Jan/2011 and 2 mil of .fr in Apr/2011) in 2014/2015.

Please note that I provided present numbers of other ccTLD registered and these extensions are also growing (although not as fast as .in).

Don't treat it too seriously, as these are my loose predictions and they may or may not come true. If .in accelerates enough it is possible to get 2 mil. even by the end of next year.
 
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Truekumar

Active Member
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Thanks for the post Kokoro, that was very informative. But from your figures it does actually seem that investors in .In domain extensions will have to wait roughly 10-15 before the .In market matures to the level of .Com

Hopefully the figures that you quoted for 2014 may even be higher if the internet does really lift off in India, but without government support and education of how to use the internet to the masses, this will be a difficult job.

The major worrying factor is that .In is not being used by many large corporations as of yet and very few companies are using it even within in India when compared to .Coms

Therefore when do you or any other guys believe that we will see the first .In domain name extension sold for over $1 million? Do you think by 2014-2015, the .In market will be popular enough in terms of traffic for large corporates to be chasing keywords with this domain extension?
 

LLL.in King

Well-Known Member
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i also agree .in needs about 5years(i caculated that from last year). India will hit 400M internet users by 2015 so i predict "cranked up" activity in .in between 2014 and 2016. it might seem like a lot of time but when you calculate your potential returns for waiting and the renewal costs, .in looks pretty solid IMO.
 

Truekumar

Active Member
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Thanks Warbux, is that to say that you think by 2016, that keyword .In extensions will be worth the same as equivalent .Com extensions?

For example, do you believe that a domain name such as Loans.in in 2016 will be valued at a similar price to Loans.com ??

I do realise that India has an immense future potential in regards to e-commerce, and there could possibly be a revolution in internet usage as there was in telecoms in the country a few years ago, BUT there is an issue with language in that although English is commonly used in India, not everyone uses English and people prefer to talk and communicate in their local dialects, therefore in 2016, do you actually think that something like Autos.In would be worth the same as Autos.com?
 

the_poet

Well-Known Member
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Though I believe .in has huge potential, I think it's unlikely that it will reach .com in 5 years: much more realistically it will equal .net/.org
 

Truekumar

Active Member
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Yes I think the same too. I think .org or .net level in 5 years is realistic and then maybe .com level in possibly 10 years if growth and broadband penetration continues to increase on a large scale
 

Kokoro

Member
I don't think .in will reach .com level in 10, 20 or even 30 years.
The strongest ccTLD is .de and they have 14 mil domains regged.
Germany has:
- 8 crores of citizens
- very solid and strong economy (they leads in Europe) but slow developing
- $40,631 GDP per capita
India has
- 120 crores of citizens
- poor but fast developing economy
- $1,265 GDP per capita

Now compare these numbers and you see that reaching 100 mil domains is unrealistic unless India becomes world superpower and USA changes into banana republic. ;)
 

Truekumar

Active Member
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Not sure about that Kokoro, I do think that India has more potential than you think mainly due to the sheer size of its population that the GDP is increasing year by year!
 

Kokoro

Member
Please don't understand me wrong. I do believe that India has large potential and become Economic superpower in 30-50 years but this is still not enough to reach .com level.
.com has always been considered as the best global TLD and as you noticed even many Indian companies prefer it over .in (I guess that will be changing as it changed before in other countries).
My opinion is that .in will be steadily growing year by year but no miracles expected.
 

LLL.in King

Well-Known Member
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Thanks Warbux, is that to say that you think by 2016, that keyword .In extensions will be worth the same as equivalent .Com extensions?

For example, do you believe that a domain name such as Loans.in in 2016 will be valued at a similar price to Loans.com ??

I do realise that India has an immense future potential in regards to e-commerce, and there could possibly be a revolution in internet usage as there was in telecoms in the country a few years ago, BUT there is an issue with language in that although English is commonly used in India, not everyone uses English and people prefer to talk and communicate in their local dialects, therefore in 2016, do you actually think that something like Autos.In would be worth the same as Autos.com?
No i am not saying .in will get to .com's potential in 5 years. thats literally impossible.

What i do know is that average end user prices for .ins will increase slowly but strongly,and .in is a good extension dollar for dollar....but you have to be willing to hold for months and years.Paying $36 to hold a .in domain for 4 years is quite a good investment IMO.
 

Dman

New Member
You have to define "mature".

.in domain names are simply a proxy through which one can bet on the future of the Indian economy, Indian internet and the durability of English as the lingua franca for the most desirable Indian consumers.

.com is a global brand that markets to the wealthiest nations, the poorest nations, every nation. ccTLDs don't have this going for them, so you can never compare them to .com.

India is poor. Improving, but the time it will take for the average Indian to have a standard of living equal to that of the average Westerner is mathematically outside our lifetimes, if ever. Since domain names are simply marketing devices, the lucre of the market they serve is totally entwined with their ultimate saleability and value.

The future of .in domains all depend on how India develops, and how internet develops in India. Don't expect .com returns, but developing them into relevant, operating enterprises targeting Indian consumers should prove interesting.
 
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Truekumar

Active Member
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Thanks for that Dman. So do you ever think that we will have a .in domain valued at $million or more? And if so, when?
 

Dman

New Member
It's possible. India certainly has a wealthy class, but whether they start spending big money on english language .in domains is yet to be seen.

As far as when a huge sale might happen, there's absolutely no way to predict that. Domains aren't like commodity products where the market has fixed parameters. In order for a million dollar sale to happen, two things must first occur.

1) Someone very wealthy must want a particular domain name very badly and be willing to spend $1,000,000 to acquire it

2) Whoever owns that domain must be a VERY unmotivated seller and have the courage to turn down huge offers and risk breaking the sale, in the hopes that the seller is willing to go a lot higher.

As someone who's negotiated a few decent domain sales myself, the one thing that is always in the back of your mind is that in order for a domain to sell at $1,000,000, the owner usually must first turn down offers of $100,000 or $500,000 or $750,000... Of course, as someone who's LOST a few very lucrative offers- that I wish I had taken- due to greed and overestimating the financial strength of my negotiating counter-party, turning down huge offers in the hopes of an even bigger offer is a lot easier said than done.

It's going to be VERY hard for most people involved in the .in namespace to turn down the types of offers that precede a $1,000,000 sale. If a $1mm domain sale does happen in the .in namespace, it will probably be between two major Indian businesses, since that's the only way I can see a .in name scaling to those heights before the seller can't justify turning down the cash.
 
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